By Brad Berreman
In this Monday edition of my continuing series taking a look at some potentially undervalued fantasy players on each major league team, the Chicago Cubs are on the docket.
Here are my top five Cubs that could be good values on draft day.
1. RPs Carlos Marmol and Kevin Gregg
Marmol and Gregg are competing to be the Cubs' closer, and whoever wins the job immediately moves into potentially huge fantasy value.
Marmol pitched well in a set-up role last season, with a 2.68 ERA and seven saves in 82 appearances. His K/9 was a robust 11.8 as led all major league relievers with 114 strikeouts, but his BB/9 of 4.2 will probably need to improve if he is to succeed at closing games on a consistent basis. But youth is on Marmol's side at just 26, and he is worthy of fantasy consideration even if he is not the closer.
Gregg had 29 saves in 2008 and 32 saves in 2007 with the Florida Marlins, so he holds the experience edge on Marmol. But his K/9 rate (7.6 last season) is not equal to Marmol's and his control (4.8 BB/9 last season, over 4.0 the past two seasons) was worse than Marmol's. He was battling a knee issue last season, so that may explain his dropoff. Gregg's groundball rate, 45% in 2008, was a significant jump from his previous levels and could help him succeed pitching at Wrigley Field if he can keep it up this season. Gregg has now publicly said he wants the job, which is a good sign of his confidence.
Marmol is probably the favorite this point, but the competition is not over. Keep an eye on this battle as your draft approaches, you won't be sorry.
2. SP Sean Marshall
Marshall is looking like the frontrunner to be the Cubs' number five starter so far this spring, as he is competing with the newly acquired Aaron Heilman and young phenom Jeff Samardzija for the job.
Marshall went 3-5 with a 3.86 ERA and one save in 34 games (seven starts) with the Cubs last season. Prior to 2008, he made 43 major league starts and had 13 major league wins during the previous two seasons.
Marshall's peripheral numbers are all trending the right way, as he has improved in K/9, BB/9 and K/BB in each of the last three seasons when you combine his numbers in the minors and with the Cubs. Despite a 4.15 ERA as a starter for the Cubs, his other ratios were all better as a starter than as a reliever last season. Marshall's numbers aside, being in the starting rotation is good news for his fantasy value if he secures a spot.
For 2009, I'm projecting Marshall to get double digit wins with an ERA around 4.00 with solid peripherals as long as he keeps a spot in the rotation all season. He does have some value in keeper leagues too, since he will turn just 27 during the season and he should be entering his best seasons.
3. OF Kosuke Fukudome
Fukudome hit .257 with 10 home runs, 58 RBI and 12 stolen bases in his first year in the major leagues last season. He was solid prior to the All-Star break (.279, .408 slugging percentage, seven home runs, 36 RBI, eight steals), but really struggled after that (.217, .326 slugging percentage, three home runs).
His drop-off late in the season could be partially attributed to his drop in hit rate (26.9% post All-Star break, 35.5% before the All-Star break), which could be a product of bad luck. Otherwise, his other peripherals did not drop off significantly. Fukudome will move over to CF with the newly acquired Milton Bradley taking over in RF, which is could impact his playing time as he may split time with Reed Johnson in CF.
I predict that Fukudome will get 450-500 at-bats and be an across the board fantasy contributor with slightly more value in NL-only leagues. Thus, I'm projecting him to hit .275-.280 with 10-15 home runs, 70-75 RBI and double digit stolen bases. His second year in the U.S. should bring better consistency as well, and he could be a nice fourth outfielder for your fantasy team.
4. 2B Mike Fontenot
Fontenot hit .305 with nine home runs and 40 RBI in at-bats with the Cubs last season. He hit .360 with a .540 slugging percentage after the All-Star break, and did display power prior to the All-Star break with seven home runs. He is the front runner to be the Cubs' starting 2B, and he may be starting to reach his potential.
Fontenot's walk rate was good last season at 12%, so his approach at the plate seems to be good. His contact rate, which was 79% last season and has hovered around 80% in recent seasons, is solid as well and could improve. As long as he gets full-time at-bats, Fontenot could be fairly productive for a middle infielder.
I'm projecting Fontenot to hit around .280 with 45-50 RBIs and the potential to get double digit home runs. His fantasy value is higher in NL-only leagues, but he could be worth a look in mixed leagues as a middle infield option.
5. SS Ryan Theriot
Theriot hit .307 last season with one home run, 38 RBI and 22 stolen bases. He only struck out 58 times in 580 at-bats in 2008, which translates easily to an excellent 90% contact rate. His on-base percentage in 2008 was a solid .387 as he increased his walk rate to 11% from 8% in 2007. One negative is his drop-off in stolen base success last season, as he went 22-for-35 last season after going 28-for-32 in 2007.
Theriot should get plenty of opportunities to score runs as part of a solid Cubs' lineup. He may hit toward the top of the order, but he could also hit toward the bottom. Either way, he should be a decent source of batting average, stolen bases and runs scored.
I'm projecting Theriot to hit around .290 with 20-25 steals and 80-85 runs scored. Don't look to him for power numbers, as he has just seven home runs in the equivalent of a less than three major league seasons. His upside is somewhat limited, but Theriot could be a solid draft day value in NL-only and deep mixed leagues.
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